Data can be accessed from: (Crop Simulation models (APSIM and DSSAT Calibration) (Embu Climate data both historical and future projections from 20 AOGCMs) (Maize crop simulations using APSIM and DSSAT at 4 locations in Embu county Kenya for the current and future climates) (Possible adaptation options for maize crop in Embu county Kenya in the future climate projections).įunding: This work was implemented as part of the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), which is carried out with support from CGIAR Fund Donors and through bilateral funding agreements. Historical climate data for the Embu county are obtained from Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), data policy on use of climate records need to be acknowledged. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.ĭata Availability: Authors uploaded datasets used in the study on climate data (both observed and selected GCMs), survey data on crop cultivar, soils, crop management and crop simulated yields for the baseline, future climate with and without adaptation. Received: JAccepted: OctoPublished: November 5, 2020Ĭopyright: © 2020 Gummadi et al. PLoS ONE 15(11):Įditor: Shamsuddin Shahid, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, MALAYSIA (2020) Simulating adaptation strategies to offset potential impacts of climate variability and change on maize yields in Embu County, Kenya. The methods and tools validated and applied in this assessment allowed estimating possible impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies which can provide valuable insights and guidance for adaptation planning.Ĭitation: Gummadi S, Kadiyala MDM, Rao KPC, Athanasiadis I, Mulwa R, Kilavi M, et al. This approach when adopted in strategic manner will also contribute to further strengthen the development of adaptation strategies at national and local levels. We consider this approach as more appropriate to identify operational adaptation strategies using readily available technologies that contribute positively under both current and future climatic conditions. Using the differential impacts of climate change, a strategy to adapt maize cultivation to climate change in all the five AEZs was identified by consolidating those practices that contributed to increased yields under climate change. However, impacts of climate change are largely positive across all AEZs and management conditions when CO 2 fertilization is included. Impacts are largely negative in the low potential AEZs such as Lower Midlands (LM4 and LM5) compared with the high potential AEZs Upper Midlands (UM2 and UM3). Impacts of current and future climatic conditions on maize yields varied depending on the AEZs, soil type, crop management and climate change scenario. Future projections in rainfall are less certain with high variability projections by GFDL-ESM2G, MIROC5, and NorESM1-M suggest 8 to 25% decline in rainfall, while CanESM2, IPSL-CM5A-MR and BNU-ESM suggested more than 85% increase in rainfall under RCP 8.5 by end of 21 st century. The projected increase in minimum temperature (Tmin) which ranged between 2.7 and 5.8☌ is higher than the increase in maximum temperature (Tmax) that varied between 2.2 and 4.8☌ by end century under RCP 8.5. Projections by HadGEM2-CC, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC-ESM tend to be higher than the rest of 17 CMIP5 climate models under both emission scenarios. Results showed that 20 CMIP5 models are consistent in their projections of increased surface temperatures with different magnitude.
#Apsim r simulator#
Two widely used crop simulation models, Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) and Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) was used to simulate the potential impacts of climate change on maize. Impacts and adaptation options were evaluated using projections by 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Adaptation strategies were developed that are locally relevant by identifying a set of technologies that help to offset potential impacts of climate change on maize yields. In this study, we assessed the possible impacts of climate variability and change on growth and performance of maize using multi-climate, multi-crop model approaches built on Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) protocols in five different agro-ecological zones (AEZs) of Embu County in Kenya and under different management systems.
0 kommentar(er)
